What is the cost of uncertainty about Brexit?

The Brexit referendum in June, 2016 was followed by widespread predictions that uncertainty about post-Brexit policies would cause immediate harm to the U.K. economy. In “Brexit and the Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty,” recently published in the Journal of International Economics, I use a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous exporters to measure the cost of Brexit uncertainty. The overall cost of Brexit for the average U.K. household is large, but less than a quarter of a percent of this cost is due to uncertainty.

About me

I am an associate professor in the University of Toronto economics department. I hold a B.A. in mathematical economics from Pomona College and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Minnesota. My research uses quantitative models to answer questions in open-economy macro, trade, and public finance. Some of my recent papers study the contribution of trade deficits to declining goods-sector employment in the United States, the cost of uncertainty about Brexit, and the macroeconomic consequences of offshore tax evasion.

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