What is the cost of uncertainty about Brexit?

The Brexit referendum in June, 2016 was followed by widespread predictions that uncertainty about post-Brexit policies would cause immediate harm to the U.K. economy. In “Brexit and the Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty,” recently published in the Journal of International Economics, I use a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous exporters to measure the cost of Brexit uncertainty. The overall cost of Brexit for the average U.K. household is large, but less than a quarter of a percent of this cost is due to uncertainty.

I am an assistant professor of economics at the University of Toronto. My research interests are international macroeconomics and trade. Some of my recent work studies the contribution of trade deficits to declining goods-sector employment in the United States and the macroeconomic consequences of uncertainty about Brexit. I hold a B.A. in mathematical economics from Pomona College and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Minnesota.

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